作者:杰森Staley, CFA, CAIA®
投资关系经理/研究和尽职调查总监
施耐德唐斯财富管理顾问有限公司
One could be forgiven if they are feeling a case of whiplash as they look at the current state of equity markets and, 特别是, 的年代&P 500. 表面上看,S&P值下降了-2.4% (inclusive of dividends reinvested), which would make some sense given that in 2019 的年代&P 500返回+31.5%. To the lay observer, equity markets were taking a breather following a scorching 2019. However, due to the COVID-19 shutdowns across the country, most people were not lay observers. 而不是, 由于全国范围内的关闭所造成的特殊情况, many more people have become keen observers of equity market movements (here is where the whiplash part comes in). 从2月19日的市场峰值开始, 市场经历了大幅上升的波动性, 伴随着疯狂的价格上下波动. 的年代&P 500 entered a bear market in record time, falling 30% in 22 trading days ; correspondingly, 的年代&P 500 entered into a new bull market (using the standard definition of +20% from its low point) in a record 12 trading days because it is 2020, 这一年,任何事情都可以, 很可能会, 发生.
One item that I think might not be appreciated fully by the newly minted “keen observers” of the market is that the best days in the market are often clustered around the worst days. 在下表中, 我强调了其中的一些日子, and why it is important to rely on the foundational principles of identifying risk tolerance, 时间范围, and liquidity needs to get you through volatile days (weeks and months) in the market.
日期 | S&500英镑每日回报 |
---|---|
2/27/2020 | -4.40% |
3/2/2020 | +4.61% |
3/3/2020 | -2.81% |
3/4/2020 | +4.23% |
日期 | S&500英镑每日回报 |
---|---|
3/13/2020 | +9.32% |
3/16/2020 | -11.98% |
3/17/2020 | +6.00% |
3/18/2020 | -5.18% |
日期 | S&500英镑每日回报 |
---|---|
3/20/2020 | -4.32% |
3/23/2020 | -2.93% |
3/24/2020 | +9.39% |
3/25/2020 | +1.15% |
3/26/2020 | +6.25% |
3/27/2020 | -3.37% |
3/30/2020 | +3.37% |
The table above illustrates 15 trading days, with every day but one occurring in the month of March. 预测市场如此不稳定是徒劳的, which naturally leads to the question in many investors’ minds: how do we weather this type of storm? Our answer: focus on the basics and ignore the noise (daily volatility) as much as possible. 很少, 如果有任何, 能准确预测危机何时发生吗, so it the planning that investors and advisors do before a crisis hits that helps them navigate to calmer waters. 了解你的风险承受能力, the amount of drawdown in your portfolio you are willing to accept without selling, 至关重要. Going through the events of March, investors’ risk tolerances were tested and should be updated. Were you able to tolerate the wild swings of March without altering your investment outlook? Re-evaluating your risk tolerance goes hand in hand with your 时间范围 and liquidity needs. 如果你的时间跨度超过十年, 我们在3月份经历的短期波动, 而不愉快, 不会对你的投资前景产生实质性影响. It especially shouldn’t alter your outlook if you have had an open dialogue with your advisor about your immediate liquidity needs; these immediate, 或短期, 流动性需求应以现金或现金等价物的形式保存. 如果投资者的现金储备准确地反映了他们的需求, additional funds would not need to be raised during volatile time periods such as March (where raising money could “lock in” permanent losses).
Ultimately, we cannot control for volatile time periods like we experienced in March. The best way to successfully traverse the explosive bouts of market volatility is with a coherent and holistic investment and financial planning strategy. 提到这个计划, 即使在市场下跌12%的时候也要持有, 就像3月16日那样, is what gives investors the most likely chance of achieving their goals. 否则, 人们可能会做出轻率甚至不明智的决定, as documented in a recent Wall Street Journal article where 31% of investors between the ages of 65-68 sold all of their stocks between February and May. 现在我们已经回到了平静的水域, the prudent course of action is to re-assess (with your advisor) whether your risk tolerance, 时间范围, 或者流动性需求发生了变化……因为市场波动性又回来了, 在2019冠状病毒病后的世界,它将继续存在.
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